Crude Oil Prices and COVID-19: Persistence of the Shock

Compumetric Forecasting of Crude Oil Prices

This paper contains short term monthly forecasts of crude oil prices using compumetric methods. Compumetric forecasting methods are ones that use computers to identify the underlying model that produces the forecast. Typically, forecasting models are designed or specified by humans rather than machines. Compumetric methods are applied to determine whether models they provide produce reliable fo...

Are Crude Oil, Gas And Coal Prices Co integrated?

Risk premia in crude oil futures prices

If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their positions. We show that this interaction can produce an affine factor structure to commodity futures prices,...

Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importa...

Impact of US Energy Policy on Crude Oil Prices

The price of Iranian crude oil in different markets depends on the price of US crude oil. In recent months, the oil and gas industry and the sale of Iranian crude oil and the co-operation and investments of oil companies operating in the field of oil field development have halted. Therefore, examining the effects of US government policies on the oil market is very effective. The most important ...